In Chicago this winter, a question is being asked as often as “What’s the temperature?”
“Will the Bears keep Justin Fields or draft a new quarterback with their No. 1 overall pick?”
It’s a critical question for this storied team, which faces its most consequential decision yet, one that could determine whether it could rise to become a viable, contending franchise.
There is plenty of support for the contingent of fans that want to keep its current signal caller.
Fields has improved as a passer every year since arriving in the NFL in 2021 when the Bears selected him with the 11th overall pick in that year’s draft. Last season, he achieved career highs in completion percentage and passer rating.
Plus, Fields has made eye-popping plays as a thrower and runner. Some looked like they could belong on an “AND1” mixtape. He also looked competent despite playing in a suboptimal offense with a deficient line and only one difference-making player in wide receiver DJ Moore.
Ultimately, Fields demonstrated why Chicago, a franchise long starved of quality quarterback play, should stick with him going forward. Few at his position are as physically dynamic and explosive. He could make even greater strides under the Bears’ newly hired offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron.
When a Soldier Field crowd erupted in a “We want Fields!” chant during a game back in December, it appeared to solidify their buy-in.
Not sure if you can hear it in the video but Big “We Want Fields” chants from the crowd #Bears pic.twitter.com/bPhm4OSlla
— Don (@BDR374) December 31, 2023
But this “Pro-Fields” contingent may need to be prepared for disappointment. There is a good chance Chicago will move on from him.
Would it be unpopular? Highly. But there are two compelling reasons why the Bears trading Fields and drafting a new quarterback makes perfect sense.
Reason No. 1: The Chance to Acquire a Talented Quarterback on a ‘Cheap’ Salary
If the Bears keep Fields, it will cost a lot of money and hamper their ability to add talent at other positions on the team. Fields earns an average annual salary of $4.7 million on his rookie contract, making him the 35th-highest-paid quarterback in a league with 32 teams. While he is set to make that much this season, the Bears must decide whether to keep him for a fifth year. If they do, they would have to pay him a whole lot more — much more.
If the Bears agree to a fifth-year option, which they would have to decide by May, they would be obligated to pay Fields an estimated $23.3 million for that year, about a 389% increase from his rookie salary.
If they sign him beyond that fifth year, Fields could easily become one of the league’s highest-paid quarterbacks, potentially earning more than $40 million annually.
Because teams have a salary cap, paying that much money to one position means not being able to pay for quality, established players at other positions of need, such as wide receiver, pass rusher or offensive lineman.
By moving on from Fields, they can get the consensus best quarterback out of the draft. And they would acquire that player and only be obligated to pay him on a rookie scale, which is “peanuts” relative to what they would have to pay Fields.
When you can get a strong player at the game’s most crucial position for cheap, it allows teams great flexibility to acquire superior talent, which bolsters their chances of making the playoffs and even the Super Bowl.
Recent examples include the Super Bowl-winning Kansas City Chiefs of 2019 and the Super Bowl Runner Up Philadelphia Eagles of 2022. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts were on rookie deals, which allowed their teams to add a plethora of accomplished players in other areas.
This season, another example is the San Francisco 49ers, who are playing the Detroit Lions this Sunday for a chance at the Super Bowl. Their starting quarterback, Brock Purdy, is making less than one million in his second year, making him the 89th highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, according to Spotrac.
That’s like getting a Wagyu steak dinner for 20 bucks. Purdy is easily one of the best bargains in sports, which has allowed the Niners to amass one of the most talented squads in football.
Because the Bears fleeced the Carolina Panthers for this year’s top draft pick, they have the most coveted commodity in football, the quarterback rookie contract, which they can build their team around.
Moving on from Fields makes perfect sense if you get the right rookie QB. The Bears appear to be in a perfect position to do so.
Reason #2: Chicago Has a Chance to Draft a Potential Superstar in Caleb Williams
If you are a Bears fan and have read this far, it would be wise to avert your eyes and skip down a few paragraphs.
Bears loyalists will want one of those “Men in Black” devices to have the memories wiped clean of that 2017 NFL Draft debacle. It was that one time they traded up to the No. 2 pick to select “quarterback Mitchell Trubisky” to be their franchise savior.
Chicago thought it got a star. In Trubisky’s second year, it appeared they had something. But the player they ultimately acquired was nothing more than a journeyman. Even worse, the team selected Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes, who is now the best American football quarterback on the planet.
The good news is that, with the top pick, Chicago can select the consensus top player in the draft, Caleb Williams, this April.
And Williams is no Trubisky. In terms of production, skill level and accomplishments, Trubisky isn’t even in the same solar system.
Trubisky had just 13 college starts under his belt, and the Bears drafted him off the strength of his junior season, the proverbial one-year wonder. He was on the bench in his first two seasons at North Carolina.
On the other hand, Williams appeared in 37 games across three seasons, amassed a 23-10 record in his collegiate career, and won the Heisman Trophy, college football’s most coveted award.
Besides pedigree, Williams has demonstrated elite skills as a thrower.
Speaking of Mahomes, this scouting report said that Williams’s skill set is reminiscent of the Chiefs’ quarterback.
Another report indicated that if Williams can refine his game as a pro, he has a chance to be a superstar.
“Considering how No. 1 overall picks are expected to step in as franchise saviors, Williams’ talent and potential separates him from the rest of the pack,” the scouting report concluded.
Heck, with above-average quarterback play from a hyper-talented athlete such as Williams, who will be paid on a cheap rookie deal, the Bears have a real chance to become immediate contenders.
If the team is also able to get the right players around a player like Williams, a Super Bowl appearance is within the realm of possibility.
Of course, they could achieve similar success with the ever-improving Fields, already a known commodity as a player with the talent to burn.
Either way, the Chicago Bears are sitting pretty because they are poised to get improved play at the game’s most important position.
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