The Bears will likely trade quarterback Justin Fields and draft Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
That’s the belief of some notable NFL insiders after the league’s annual NFL Combine concluded in Indianapolis on Sunday.
One of those voices is NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport, who said it would take a team giving up a “historic haul” to trade for Chicago’s top pick. According to Rapoport, a team isn’t willing to make that move.
“I have not talked to any team, one, willing to make that happen, or two, that believes they can,” Rapoport said Friday (Feb. 29) on NFL Network. “It surely seems that the Bears are heading in the direction of taking Caleb Williams at No. 1.”
That reasoning falls in line with what NFL draft expert Daniel Jeremiah believes.
“I would be very surprised if Caleb Williams wasn’t a Chicago Bear,” Jeremiah said over a week ago.
So, why would the team move on from the talented and popular Fields for Williams, who has never played a down in the NFL?
Well, the move has to do with NFL economics and questions around Fields’s ability to become an upper-echelon quarterback.
If the Bears decide to roll with Fields, they will have to sign off on a fifth-year option, paying him substantially more than his rookie contract’s $4.7 million average annual value. Once that option year is up, they would likely have to pay him over $40 million annually. A salary that high would severely hamper Chicago’s ability to add more experienced talent to its roster or keep some of its good young players over the long run.
But if they select the dynamic Williams on a rookie deal, they could get the same quality of play for a fraction of the cost.
That’s if Williams pans out.
According to many people who study football, the belief is strong that the seemingly eccentric Williams is that guy.
In some circles, he is regarded as the best quarterback prospect to emerge from college since Patrick Mahomes or even Andrew Luck.
There is also a prevailing belief that the ceiling of Williams’s ability is higher than that of Fields, especially when it comes to arm talent and the ability to read defenses and make throws under pressure.
That brings us to Fields. As an athlete very few humans in existence possess his speed or throwing arm. But in the three years he has been with the Bears, Fields has only amassed a 10-28 record.
He isn’t solely to blame for that record.
The Bears haven’t exactly surrounded him with a talented cast capable of protecting or helping him win games. However, observers will point to the fact that last season, Chicago’s passing game finished in the bottom third in passer rating and success rate. Fields has a lot to do with that.
Plus, elite quarterbacks can transcend limitations and will their teams to win. So far, Fields has yet to be able to do that consistently.
Ultimately, for the Bears, it’s the lure of potentially drafting the best QB prospect they’ve had in ages — Williams is that enticing mystery behind door No. 1. It’s also the promise of having the best of both worlds: a talented quarterback on a “cheap” rookie deal and the excess money because of said deal to add a bevy of talented players they need.
Or the Bears can stick with the Fields and continue to help him become the best version of himself, an increasingly expensive proposition many don’t see happening.
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