by Mike Pelaia, Courier Steelers Columnist
Last week, I wrote about how it’s too early to go to Kenny Pickett as the starting quarterback. I felt the team should wait ’til after the eighth game and a 2-6 or 1-7 start. I believed Mitch Trubisky should have been allowed half a season to start, should have navigated the next four games against the gauntlet that are the Bills, Bucs, Dolphins and Eagles and let Pickett learn from the sidelines.
Mike Tomlin chose to go to Pickett at halftime this past Sunday, Oct. 2, against the lowly Jets and while I believe it’s still too early to do so, I also believe there’s no turning back now. It’s Pickett’s team. Hopefully for the next 10 to 15 years.
But, we all must dive into this Pickett era cautiously and patiently. Too many talking heads around town love to anoint Pickett as the second coming of Ben Roethlisberger or I’ve even seen Joe Montana as a comparison.
Slow down.
Those comparisons set dangerous expectations for a kid who, up until Sunday, hadn’t thrown an NFL pass in the regular season. It’s not fair to Pickett to put the “savior” title on him.
He’s a rookie, he’s going to have growing pains, expect it and accept it. Roethlisberger had a fantastic team surrounding him during his amazing 2004 run, led by a league-leading defense.
Through four games, and acknowledging T.J. Watt has missed three of those, this defense ranks 24th overall in the league in yards allowed. This defense let Jets quarterback Zach Wilson march down the field with the game on the line and allowed the game-winning TD with 16 seconds left. Oh by the way, Wilson hadn’t played all season until then.
This defense isn’t going to give Pickett much of a break in field position or creating turnovers. That’s not Kenny’s fault, but you can’t expect him to complete several 80-yard drives each and every week. It’s unrealistic.
Ben Roethlisberger had a top running attack when he took over in 2004. Kenny Pickett takes over an offense that ranks 30th overall and 23rd in rushing.
Yes, it will be Pickett’s job to provide a spark to an offense that has sputtered, but he won’t be a miracle-worker. He has an inept offensive coordinator, a mediocre offensive line and an overrated defense. He doesn’t need the fans’ expectations to be through the roof for a team that, quite frankly, just isn’t that good.
In 2020, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love were all first-round quarterbacks. The first three were top-six draft picks and while they are all succeeding heavily now and did so in year two as well (Burrow and Herbert), Love can’t find the field yet and Tua took until this year to really blossom.
Pickett was drafted 20th, and doesn’t have the Burrow or Herbert pedigree, yet. He may get there, but slow your roll, Pittsburgh.
Last year, first-round quarterbacks were Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones. Jones has had the only success thus far. Point being, it takes time.
I’m not here to say Pickett won’t have success; in fact, I think he’ll be pretty good this season. But I am here to say that everyone needs to lay off the expectations, adulations and pressure they are putting on this kid. He’s not Big Ben, he’s not Joe Montana, he’s Kenny Pickett, and let that play out on its own.
HOW THE STEELERS/BILLS GAME WILL PLAY OUT…
Pickett’s first start will come against the mighty Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Oct. 9. The Steelers did go into Buffalo in week one of 2021 as big underdogs and pull off the upset, but that’s a tall order this year. The Bills are better, the Steelers are worse and more so, hurt. We know Watt is out, Terrell Edmunds, Cam Sutton, Cam Heyward and Akheelo Witherspoon are all hurt as well.
Offensively, the Steelers better dial up a game plan that moves the ball effectively on the ground. Najee Harris will be the focal point but he needs to average at least 4.0 yards per carry to help his rookie quarterback. If Pittsburgh can run effectively, then perhaps Pickett can get Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens and Pat Friermuth involved.
I’m looking to see how Pickett commands an offense that has been nothing short of dismal this season. How will the team react around him, and how will he react if he makes the inevitable rookie mistake?
Defensively, they need to keep Josh Allen in the pocket but even then, he’s as dangerous as anyone in the league. They need to force turnovers and create a short field and they need to create several short drives.
I don’t think the Steelers have a shot at doing any of what they need to do. I think they’ll be outcoached, outplayed on all sides of the ball and lose in a big way.
MIKE PELAIA’S POWER PREDICTION – Steelers lose, 33-16
(Mike Pelaia is a Steelers columnist for the New Pittsburgh Courier.)